Mortgage Blog

Mortgage Market Update 03/19/2008
March 19th, 2008 2:12 PM
Wednesday's bond market opened well in positive territory but has since given back part of those gains. The stock markets are showing losses after yesterday's huge rally. The Dow is currently down 25 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 15 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point. However, if bond prices continue to slip, we may see upward revisions to rates later today.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late tomorrow morning. That index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% decline, indicating that economic activity will likely slow in the coming weeks. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The bond market will close early tomorrow and rem ain closed until Monday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. There is a possibility of seeing additional volatility in trading as investors prepare for the long weekend. Accordingly, I am holding the immediate and short-term lock recommendations.

Also worth noting was news that the regulatory agency that oversees mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eased capital requirements for the two in an effort to free up more funds to purchase mortgage loans. Since they now need to set less money aside for reserves, they can purchase more loans, which in turn should help mortgage lenders fund more loans for borrowers. It is believed that the $200 billion may help the mortgage and housing markets and contribute to stabilizing the economy.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Posted by Randy Reed on March 19th, 2008 2:12 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Market Update 03/24/2008
March 24th, 2008 10:46 AM
Monday's bond market has opened down sharply following an early stock rally and stronger than expected housing news. The stock markets are kicking the week off quite strong with the Dow up 212 points and the Nasdaq up 60 points. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Thursday's rates.

The first report of the week came late this morning with the release of February's Existing Home Sales. It showed a 2.8% increase in home resales last month when it was expected to show another decline. This is good news for the housing sector, but considered bad news for bonds.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six more reports for the bond market to digest. The next one is the first important data of the week when March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is posted late tomorrow morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a decline from February's reading of 75.0 to 73.4.

Wednesday's important data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in orders of approximately 0.8%. A larger increase would be considered a negative for bonds and co uld lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. I am expecting the CCI or Durable Goods Orders reports to have the biggest influence on mortgage rates, so by default we can declare tomorrow or Wednesday to be of high importance. The truth is that rather than a significant change in rates one or two days, we will most likely see a slight change several days. Accordingly, the risk of floating an interest rate this week is not as great as last week, but with a low expectation of much improvement in rates the next several days, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 d ays from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Posted by Randy Reed on March 24th, 2008 10:46 AMPost a Comment (0)

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