This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of only three factual economic releases. However, none of them are not likely to affect mortgage rates much. The bond market is expected to close early Wednesday and Friday and be closed the entire day Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. In addition, I expect to see light trading in the financia l markets most of the time that the markets are open.

The first report of the week is Tuesday's release of October's Housing Starts. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeably impact on mortgage rates. I don't expect this month's version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts forecast. It is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes.

Also Tuesday is the afternoon release of the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Tuesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rate cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon tradin g.

The next data is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late Wednesday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months and can directly affect the bond market and mortgage rates. It is expected to show a decline from last month's reading. The forecasted 0.4% drop would indicate slower economic activity over the next few months, which is considered to be good news for the bond market.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will also be posted late Wednesday morning. Analysts are expecting to see no revision to the preliminary reading of 75.0. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don't think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

Overall, I expect see bond trading get lighter as the week goes on as more traders head home for the holiday. If we get any significant surprises or unexpected new s this week, bond prices will move more than usual due to the thin trading. But, if we see no surprises, it should be a fairly quiet week for mortgage rates. With the little likelihood of much improvement in rates, I am holding the Lock recommendations.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday's bond market has opened up slightly after this morning's inflation reading didn't reveal any surprises. The stock markets are showing small gains with the Dow up 7 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Labor De partment released October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early this morning, saying that the overall index rose 0.3% while the core data rose 0.2%. These matched forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures were at expected levels. The lack of a surprise helped ease some inflation fears, but generally speaking the data did not impact bond trading or mortgage rates much.

The Labor Department also said the 339,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than expected, which can be considered good news for bonds. However, the weekly report usually has little influence eon bonds or mortgage rates because it tracks only a week's worth of claims.

The last report of the week comes tomorrow morning when October's Industrial Production data be posted at 9:15 AM This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.1% increase. St ronger than expected levels of output could mean that the manufacturing sector is gaining momentum. That would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are relatively calm with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Departm ent gave us October's Retail Sales figures early this morning, saying that sales rose 0.2% last month. This matched forecasts, therefore, has not had a significant impact on the bond market or mortgage rates today.

The Labor Department posted October's Producer Price Index (PPI). They said that the overall index rose 0.1%, while the more important core data reading remained unchanged from September's levels. These readings were 0.2% below forecasts, which is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, the bond market has failed to react to the news as it was expected to, keeping this morning's mortgage rates from improving.

October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released early tomorrow morning. This index is similar to today's PPI, except it measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. The overall portion is expected to show a rise of 0.3% while the core data is expected to rise 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected readings as we did in today's report, we should see mortgage rates improve tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week is very light in terms of economic releases for the markets to digest, especially compared to last week. There are two monthly and one quarterly reports on tap, but only the quarterly one can be considered to be highly important. This makes it quite likely that we will see a fairly quiet week in the mortgage markets, assuming that the stock markets do not repeat last week's volatility.

The first piece of data scheduled for release comes Wednesday morning with the release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity report. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter similar to last quarter's final reading of 3.1%. This would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The final two releases of the week will be posted Friday morning. The first is Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities' proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor's domestic currency . However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

November's preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released during late morning trading. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 80.0, down from October's final reading of 80.9.

There are 10-year Note and 30-year Bond auctions this week, Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Strong or very weak results from these sales could affect the momentum in the bond market and lead to afternoon changes in mortgage rates. It is common to see pressure in bonds ahead of these sales, but as long as interest from investors is decent we should see those pre-sale losses recovered during afternoon trading of the sale days.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market unless something totally unexpected transpires. As long as the stock markets re main fairly calm, I am expecting to see little movement in mortgage rates. However, I am extending the lock recommendation to short and mid term periods. This is not an indication that I necessarily feel mortgage rates will rise. It means that the risk versus reward scale is leaning towards the risk side. If mortgage rates are not likely to improve during that time frame, then there is little reward of continuing to float. Accordingly, a lock recommendation is appropriate in my opinion.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.