Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses and news of a surprisingly weak number of new unemployment claims. The stock markets are in negative ground with the Dow showing a 65 point loss and the Nasdaq losing 17 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that 407,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was much higher than the 365,000 that were expected. It also broke an important benchmark of 400,000 claims that is a recessionary sign for the first time since September 2005. Normally this data doesn't have much of an impact on the markets or rates because it tracks only a week's worth of claims. However, due to the size of the spike and the fact that it comes a day before the monthly figures are released, it has influenced trading this mor ning.

The ISM Services Index that was referenced in yesterday's report showed a stronger than expected reading of 49.6, but was still below the 50.0 benchmark that indicates growth in the sector. It did not vary from forecasts enough to influence trading or mortgage rates much this morning.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report. It is arguably the most important monthly report that we see. The Labor Department will release the figures, giving us the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added to the economy, along with other readings on the employment sector. It is expected to show an increase in the unemployment rate from February's 4.8% to 5.0% and that approximately 40,000 payrolls were lost during the month. Another important portion of the report is the average hourly earnings, which is expected to show a 0.2% increase.

If we see weaker than expected figures in those three headline numbers , we should see a bond rally and mortgage rates drop tomorrow. But, if the figures are stronger than forecasts, look for bonds to fall and mortgage rates to rise. I am expecting to see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and rates tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.