Mortgage Blog

Marget Update 05/09/2007
May 9th, 2007 9:51 AM
Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for this afternoon's FOMC results. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 5 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates slightly higher.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, leaving the markets to look towards the FOMC meeting for direction. The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET and is expected to not bring a change to key short-term interest rates. Assuming the Fed does leave rates alone, the post-meeting statement will be the focus of afternoon trading.

Traders are looking for any hint or indication of what the Fed's next move may be and when it may come. Most analysts are not expecting an adjustment to the benchmark Fed Funds rate until late this year at the earliest and can agree that the economy is showing signs of slowing. Where the division comes is in what that move will be. Some fear that inflation is still too high for the Fed's comfort level and we will see an increase in the Fed Funds rate. The other side of the argument is that inflation is moderating, and if it continues to slow a rate cut is needed to prevent the economy from slowing too quickly.

There is general optimism that today's post-meeting statement will somehow clarify the Fed's stance. While there is a good possibility of the statement leading to speculation and different interpretations, the Fed usually chooses its words very carefully. I don't see a clear message being given.

Also worth noting is that yesterday's 10-year Treasury Note sale was actually met with a decent demand from investors. Despite that news, bonds failed to rally as traders await today's events before making a move.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the meeting results and statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Posted by Randy Reed on May 9th, 2007 9:51 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Market Update 05/04/2007
May 4th, 2007 12:10 PM
Friday's bond market has opened well into positive territory following the release of this morning's employment numbers. The stock markets are showing gains again with the Dow up 35 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently up7/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today's big news came from the Labor Department who said that 88,000 new jobs were added to the economy, which fell short of the 100,000 that was forecasted. The unemployment rate did rise to 4.5% as expected. The best news came in the average earnings that rose only 0.2% compared to the 0.3% that was expected. That eased some wage inflation concerns and led to this morning's gains in bonds.

With this week's gains in bonds and improvement in mortgage rates, it may be a good opportunity to extend the Lock recommendations. The yield on the 10 year Note is approaching the bottom end of its recent trading range. This doesn't mean that I think rates will move significantly higher during those periods, just that I don't expect rates to improve much.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of important pieces of data, but they due to be posted on Friday. The next FOMC meeting is Wednesday, so the markets will be preparing for it the first day or two of the week. There is no relevant economic data until Friday, so Wednesday and Friday are the important days. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Posted by Randy Reed on May 4th, 2007 12:10 PMPost a Comment (0)

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